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PICM Risk Index ©

//PICM Risk Index ©

Why PICM Risk Index ©?

In a dynamically changing environment, analysts, including credit managers, are looking for the so-called High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity (IEA) or other data helping to assess the current state of economic activity. This is important, especially in the absence of current information on the financial results of enterprises that do not publish current financial information. Therefore, we invite you to familiarize yourself with the PICM Risk Index ©, which is calculated monthly for all industries and enterprises of all countries in the European Union.

The PICM Risk Index © indicators are based on long-term time series of business tendency trends provided by the European Comission. The PICM Risk Index © ranges from 0 to 100, where the higher the value of the index, the higher the risk of insolvency of companies in a given industry. It is assumed that a significant risk arises when the indicator exceeds 50 points.

Why Use PICM Risk Index ©?

  • No financial statements: The level of industry risk can be useful in assessing customer risk without financial statements
  • Scoring model: The level of industry risk may be an additional element of the scoring model for clients with financial statements
  • Early warning signals: in a dynamically changing environment, current information is important to assess the potential risk of insolvency

The purpose of the PICM Risk Index © is to supplement the detailed solvency analysis of a single enterprise with a more general risk measure, the risk of the industry in which the enterprise operates. This can be compared to the fundamental analysis of a listed company where the end result is the determination of the value of the enterprise (share). At the end of the credit analysis, we define the risk class. The stages preceding this are basically the same, i.e. analysis of the financial standing, analysis of the macro-environment and the industry environment. The PICM Risk Index © gives a picture of risk just for the industry environment.

The interactive graphics below show samples of PICM Risk Index © presentations for selected industries and countries.

Detailed PICM Risk Index © readings are available for logged in PICM Associate (PICMa) in the Credit Manager Zone (Strefa Credit Managera).

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PICM Risk Index © is computed for whole European Union, Euro area and following countries:

  • Belgium
  • Bulgaria
  • Czechia
  • Denmark
  • Germany
  • Estonia
  • Ireland
  • Greece
  • Spain
  • France
  • Croatia
  • Italy
  • Cyprus
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Luxembourg
  • Hungary
  • Malta
  • Netherlands
  • Austria
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Romania
  • Slovenia
  • Slovak Republic
  • Finland
  • Sweden
  • Montenegro
  • North Macedonia
  • Albania
  • Serbia
  • Turkey

PICM Risk Index © could be computed on request for following industries in all countries:

  • Manufacture of food products
  • Manufacture of beverages
  • Manufacture of tobacco products
  • Manufacture of textiles
  • Manufacture of wearing apparel
  • Manufacture of leather and related products
  • Manuf. of wood and of prod. of wood and cork, except. furniture; manuf. of straw and plaiting materials
  • Manufacture of paper and paper products
  • Printing and reproduction of recorded media
  • Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products
  • Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
  • Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations
  • Manufacture of rubber and plastic products
  • Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products
  • Manufacture of basic metals
  • Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
  • Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products
  • Manufacture of electrical equipment
  • Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.
  • Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
  • Manufacture of other transport equipment
  • Manufacture of furniture
  • Other manufacturing
  • Repair and installation of machinery and equipment

PICM Risk Index © could be computed on request for following service sub-sectors in all countries:

  • Land transport and transport via pipelines
  • Water transport
  • Air transport
  • Warehousing and support activities for transportation
  • Postal and courier activities
  • Accommodation
  • Food and beverage service activities
  • Publishing activities
  • Motion picture, video and tv prog. Prod., sound reco. and music pub. activities
  • Programming and broadcasting activities
  • Telecommunications
  • Computer programming, consultancy and related activities
  • Information service activities
  • Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding
  • Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security
  • Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities
  • Real estate activities
  • Legal and accounting activities
  • Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities
  • Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis
  • Scientific research and development
  • Advertising and market research
  • Other professional, scientific and technical activities
  • Veterinary activities
  • Rental and leasing activities
  • Employment activities
  • Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities
  • Security and investigation activities
  • Services to buildings and landscape activities
  • Office administrative, office support and other business support activities
  • Creative, arts and entertainment activities
  • Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities
  • Gambling and betting activities
  • Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities
  • Activities of membership organisations
  • Repair of computers and personal and household goods
  • Other personal service activities
Any enquiries? please contact:
Robert Dyrcz, PICM
+48 600 093 372